Metal Ligaen

Rungsted vs Esbjerg prediction

Rungsted4–8–2 · Home Esbjerg7–5–2 · Away07:00 PMOct 28

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%ESB53%ESB

Esbjerg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.89 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Esbjerg 53% favourites on the road against Rungsted, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

RUNRungsted in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

ESBEsbjerg in 60'

44%

Game flow

RUN 2.9 · ESB 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.9

P2 · 0.8–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Esbjerg53%1.89
Regulation result (60 minutes)Esbjerg44%2.30
Puck lineRungsted +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Esbjerg

53%fair 1.89

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Esbjerg

44%fair 2.30

Puck line

Rungsted +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

O. LissRUN · 9 G in 14 GP · 14 GP9334%2.95
T. LajeunesseESB · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8632%3.13
N. WerbikESB · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6426%3.88
V. AhlbergRUN · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4325%4.00
A. KuldaESB · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5424%4.22
T. DalyRUN · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4123%4.26
Z. FranklinESB · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5623%4.39
G. DowningESB · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4222%4.52
F. KarlssonRUN · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4120%4.95
G. OlhaverRUN · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4620%5.02

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Rungsted vs Esbjerg?

Our model makes Esbjerg 53% favourites on the road against Rungsted, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Rungsted have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch. Esbjerg have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Rungsted sit 9th, while Esbjerg sit 3rd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Rungsted rate −0.32 and Esbjerg +0.05 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.37 goals to Esbjerg. Home ice is worth about 0.18 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Esbjerg win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Rungsted 1, Esbjerg 0); the latest finished Esbjerg 2–6 Rungsted on 2026-10-19.

Our own lines for this game: Esbjerg −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (6.2 projected).

Esbjerg to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.