HockeyAllsvenskan

AIK vs Leksand prediction

AIK12–1–1 · Home Leksand10–3–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 30

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%AIK51%AIK

AIK to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.97 · projected 3–2

AIK are the pick at home against Leksand: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

AIKAIK in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LEKLeksand in 60'

40%

Game flow

AIK 3.3 · LEK 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 1.3–1.1

P3 · 1.0–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)AIK51%1.97
Regulation result (60 minutes)AIK41%2.44
Puck lineLeksand +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 6.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes93%1.08

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

AIK

51%fair 1.97

Regulation result (60 minutes)

AIK

41%fair 2.44

Puck line

Leksand +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 6.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

93%fair 1.08

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. KelleherLEK · 11 G in 12 GP · 12 GP11836%2.81
O. LangLEK · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8729%3.45
O. JohanssonAIK · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7327%3.73
J. PassoltLEK · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7726%3.89
D. LjungmanAIK · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6326%3.89
A. LisselLEK · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7224%4.12
A. StakkestadLEK · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7624%4.14
V. LennartssonAIK · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5222%4.54
S. PooleyAIK · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5422%4.64
R. RudslattAIK · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4221%4.72

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win AIK vs Leksand?

AIK are the pick at home against Leksand: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

AIK have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Leksand have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

AIK sit 1st, while Leksand sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, AIK rate +0.50 and Leksand +0.69 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.18 goals to Leksand. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives AIK 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: AIK −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6.7 projected).

AIK to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.