HockeyAllsvenskan

Mora vs Sodertalje prediction

Mora6–5–3 · Home Sodertalje8–4–2 · Away07:00 PMOct 28

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%MOR54%MOR

Mora to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.84 · projected 3–2

Mora are the pick at home against Sodertalje: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

MORMora in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

SODSodertalje in 60'

35%

Game flow

MOR 2.8 · SOD 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.3–0.8

P2 · 0.8–1.3

P3 · 0.8–0.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Mora54%1.84
Regulation result (60 minutes)Mora43%2.30
Puck lineSodertalje +1.572%1.38
Total goalsUnder 5.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Mora

54%fair 1.84

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Mora

43%fair 2.30

Puck line

Sodertalje +1.5

72%fair 1.38

Total goals

Under 5.5

56%fair 1.78

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. SouchSOD · 10 G in 13 GP · 13 GP10632%3.15
K. UmegardMOR · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7428%3.63
P. ElvsveenMOR · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6625%3.93
O. TarnstromMOR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4620%5.00
H. LarssonMOR · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4319%5.37
T. Aase-StenslandMOR · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3118%5.46
A. VanderbeckSOD · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4318%5.62
D. Muzito-BagendaSOD · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4317%5.85
D. NorbeSOD · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4315%6.50
J. IkonenSOD · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3215%6.64

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Mora vs Sodertalje?

Mora are the pick at home against Sodertalje: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Mora have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch. Sodertalje have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Mora sit 7th, while Sodertalje sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Mora rate +0.34 and Sodertalje +0.32 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.02 goals to Mora. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Mora win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 54%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Mora 0, Sodertalje 1); the latest finished Sodertalje 3–1 Mora on 2026-10-11.

Our own lines for this game: Mora −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 56% (5.5 projected).

Mora to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.