HockeyAllsvenskan

Kalmar vs Leksand prediction

Kalmar9–2–2 · Home Leksand10–3–0 · Away08:30 PMOct 23

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%LEK54%LEK

Leksand to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.85 · projected 2–3

Leksand are the pick to win at Kalmar with a 54% chance including overtime, and the projected score is 3–2.

After 60 minutes

KALKalmar in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

LEKLeksand in 60'

43%

Game flow

KAL 3.2 · LEK 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.8

P2 · 1.1–0.8

P3 · 0.9–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Leksand54%1.85
Regulation result (60 minutes)Leksand43%2.33
Puck lineKalmar +1.570%1.43
Total goalsOver 5.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Leksand

54%fair 1.85

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Leksand

43%fair 2.33

Puck line

Kalmar +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Over 5.5

56%fair 1.78

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. KelleherLEK · 11 G in 11 GP · 11 GP11937%2.73
J. Ihs WozniakKAL · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4527%3.73
O. LangLEK · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7826%3.81
E. EkmarkKAL · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6325%4.01
A. LisselLEK · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7725%4.01
C. FeltonKAL · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5324%4.11
R. VitelliKAL · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5523%4.39
P. ZackrissonLEK · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6622%4.51
A. McShaneKAL · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.69
A. StakkestadLEK · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6621%4.75

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kalmar vs Leksand?

Leksand are the pick to win at Kalmar with a 54% chance including overtime, and the projected score is 3–2.

Leksand travel to Kalmar as the second-placed team against the third, and their recent form is level on wins: both have taken 3 of their last 5. The difference is in scoring, where Leksand have averaged 5.0 goals a game over that stretch while Kalmar have averaged 3.4, though both have allowed 2.6. That heavier Leksand attack is a key reason they are favoured despite being on the road.

On adjusted ratings, which account for the strength of opponents faced, Leksand hold a +0.55 goals-per-game edge over an average team, compared with Kalmar's +0.39. That 0.17-goal gap is partly offset by home ice, worth about 0.32 goals a game in this league, but not enough to flip the favourite. The model still leans Leksand, with a projected 3–2 score.

The teams have met once recently, and Kalmar won that game 6–3 on 2026-10-21, so Leksand will be looking to respond. The market also favours Leksand: after removing the bookmaker margin, the moneyline across 9 bookmakers prices them at 57%, which aligns with our 54% chance. With about 21% of games like this level after 60 minutes, Leksand's regulation win probability is only 43%, and the rest of their 54% comes from overtime and the shootout.

Given the closeness of the ratings and the home-ice edge, this is effectively a coin flip, and the lean toward Leksand should be treated with care. Their superior scoring form and adjusted rating give them the edge, but Kalmar's home advantage and recent head-to-head win keep the game balanced.

The projected 3–2 score implies a total of 5 goals, just under the 5.5 line, yet our numbers give the over 5.5 a 56% chance against a projected 6.4 goals. On the puck line, Leksand −1.5 comes in 30% of the time on our numbers, reflecting the likelihood of a one-goal margin. These figures suggest the spread and total markets are finely balanced, with the over holding a slight edge.

Leksand to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected score of 3–2.