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Krefeld Pinguine vs Kölner Haie prediction

Krefeld Pinguine4–6–1 · Home Kölner Haie6–4–2 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%KRE53%KRE

Krefeld Pinguine to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Krefeld Pinguine (53%) at home against Kölner Haie, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

KREKrefeld Pinguine in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

KÖLKölner Haie in 60'

38%

Game flow

KRE 3.1 · KÖL 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–1.0

P2 · 1.1–0.8

P3 · 1.2–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Krefeld Pinguine53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)Krefeld Pinguine43%2.31
Puck lineKölner Haie +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Krefeld Pinguine

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Krefeld Pinguine

43%fair 2.31

Puck line

Kölner Haie +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. SantosKRE · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7536%2.74
L. AubryKÖL · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7832%3.10
M. NoebelsKÖL · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7226%3.90
A. PayerlKRE · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4226%3.91
M. NewtonKRE · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4324%4.12
V. KemilainenKÖL · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6324%4.15
M. LjunghKÖL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5522%4.62
D. FischbuchKÖL · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.81
P. GogullaKRE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3520%5.00
M. MullerKRE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3019%5.15

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Krefeld Pinguine vs Kölner Haie?

The numbers side with Krefeld Pinguine (53%) at home against Kölner Haie, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Krefeld Pinguine have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch. Kölner Haie have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Krefeld Pinguine sit 11th, while Kölner Haie sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Krefeld Pinguine rate −0.15 and Kölner Haie −0.01 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.14 goals to Kölner Haie. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league.

About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Krefeld Pinguine win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Krefeld Pinguine −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.3 projected).

Krefeld Pinguine to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.