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Nürnberg Ice Tigers vs Grizzlys Wolfsburg prediction

Nürnberg Ice Tigers7–4–1 · Home Grizzlys Wolfsburg5–5–2 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

65%win chance incl. overtime35%

Our pick

65%NÜR65%NÜR

Nürnberg Ice Tigers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.54 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Nürnberg Ice Tigers (65%) at home against Grizzlys Wolfsburg, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

NÜRNürnberg Ice Tigers in 60'

55%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

GRIGrizzlys Wolfsburg in 60'

27%

Game flow

NÜR 3.3 · GRI 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.7

P2 · 0.7–1.0

P3 · 1.7–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Nürnberg Ice Tigers65%1.54
Regulation result (60 minutes)Nürnberg Ice Tigers55%1.81
Puck lineGrizzlys Wolfsburg +1.561%1.63
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Nürnberg Ice Tigers

65%fair 1.54

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Nürnberg Ice Tigers

55%fair 1.81

Puck line

Grizzlys Wolfsburg +1.5

61%fair 1.63

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.98

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. MageraNÜR · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7330%3.33
S. Dove-McFallsNÜR · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6629%3.49
T. HeiglNÜR · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6729%3.49
E. BarrattNÜR · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6228%3.57
M. ChoupaniGRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4222%4.65
S. MachacekGRI · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5321%4.74
T. MorleyGRI · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4319%5.18
T. GaudetGRI · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4419%5.27
J. CatesNÜR · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3718%5.41
J. FeserGRI · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3118%5.62

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Nürnberg Ice Tigers vs Grizzlys Wolfsburg?

The numbers side with Nürnberg Ice Tigers (65%) at home against Grizzlys Wolfsburg, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Nürnberg Ice Tigers have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Grizzlys Wolfsburg have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Nürnberg Ice Tigers sit 3rd, while Grizzlys Wolfsburg sit 8th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Nürnberg Ice Tigers rate +0.43 and Grizzlys Wolfsburg −0.17 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.60 goals to Nürnberg Ice Tigers. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Nürnberg Ice Tigers 55% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Nürnberg Ice Tigers −1.5 on the puck line (39%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (5.9 projected).

Nürnberg Ice Tigers to win, overtime and shootout included (65%). Projected score: 3–2.