NHL

Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators prediction

Vegas Golden Knights8–4–0 · Home Ottawa Senators7–4–0 · Away10:00 PMOct 27

58%win chance incl. overtime42%

Our pick

58%VEG58%VEG

Vegas Golden Knights to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.73 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Vegas Golden Knights (58%) at home against Ottawa Senators, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

VEGVegas Golden Knights in 60'

48%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

OTTOttawa Senators in 60'

33%

Game flow

VEG 3.3 · OTT 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.9

P2 · 1.3–1.0

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Vegas Golden Knights58%1.73
Regulation result (60 minutes)Vegas Golden Knights48%2.10
Puck lineOttawa Senators +1.568%1.47
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Vegas Golden Knights

58%fair 1.73

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Vegas Golden Knights

48%fair 2.10

Puck line

Ottawa Senators +1.5

68%fair 1.47

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Vegas Golden Knights

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

14:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
49	Ivan Barbashev LW	18:52	1	7	8
9	Jack Eichel C	16:46	5	14	19
61	Mark Stone RW	16:46	8	6	14

41 points this season

21HowdenLW

71KarlssonC

10HoltzRW

2nd line

12:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Brett Howden LW	15:53	5	3	8
71	William Karlsson C	16:34	2	2	4
10	Alexander Holtz RW	14:04	0	1	1

13 points this season

TC24ConnellyLW

48HertlC BB42BowmanRW

3rd line

6:46 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Trevor Connelly LW	13:53	4	1	5
48	Tomáš Hertl C	14:20	4	3	7
42	Braeden Bowman RW	14:56	2	2	4

16 points this season

MG17GatcombLW

26DowdC

36LavoieRW

4th line

3:45 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Marc Gatcomb LW	11:56	1	1	2
26	Nic Dowd C	11:56	0	2	2
36	Raphael Lavoie RW	11:51	0	2	2

6 points this season

3McNabbD

27TheodoreD

1st pair

17:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Brayden McNabb D	22:47	0	7	7
27	Shea Theodore D	22:37	2	2	4

11 points this season

4AnderssonD

5LauzonD

2nd pair

14:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Rasmus Andersson D	19:48	2	3	5
5	Jeremy Lauzon D	18:15	0	0	0

5 points this season

15HanifinD

52CoghlanD

3rd pair

13:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
15	Noah Hanifin D	21:09	2	3	5
52	Dylan Coghlan D	15:28	0	1	1

6 points this season

Power play unit 1: No such unit in that game.

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 1

1:07 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	William Karlsson F	16:34	2	2	4
26	Nic Dowd F	11:56	0	2	2
3	Brayden McNabb D	22:47	0	7	7
27	Shea Theodore D	22:37	2	2	4

17 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:38 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
61	Mark Stone F	16:46	8	6	14
9	Jack Eichel F	16:46	5	14	19
4	Rasmus Andersson D	19:48	2	3	5
5	Jeremy Lauzon D	18:15	0	0	0

38 points this season

Goalies: Carter Hart #79 (Projected) · Adin Hill #33 (Backup)

Ottawa Senators

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

6:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Fabian Zetterlund LW	15:53	1	3	4
18	Tim Stützle C	22:54	7	7	14
28	Claude Giroux RW	18:44	2	4	6

24 points this season

71GreigLW

12PintoC

22AmadioRW

2nd line

9:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Ridly Greig LW	19:07	1	1	2
12	Shane Pinto C	20:17	2	4	6
22	Michael Amadio RW	13:55	2	2	4

12 points this season

37FoegeleLW

24CozensC

19BathersonRW

3rd line

7:46 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
37	Warren Foegele LW	12:48	1	3	4
24	Dylan Cozens C	17:17	0	2	2
19	Drake Batherson RW	18:14	4	4	8

14 points this season

21CousinsLW SH34HallidayC

42HodgsonRW

4th line

1:27 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Nick Cousins LW	9:15	1	1	2
34	Stephen Halliday C	15:20	3	2	5
42	Hayden Hodgson RW	3:03	0	0	0

7 points this season

85SandersonD

2ZubD

1st pair

10:40 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
85	Jake Sanderson D	26:09	0	2	2
2	Artem Zub D	18:46	0	1	1

3 points this season

26YakemchukD NM33MatinpaloD

2nd pair

7:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
26	Carter Yakemchuk D	17:53	1	1	2
33	Nikolas Matinpalo D	16:53	0	2	2

4 points this season

10SpenceD

43KlevenD

3rd pair

12:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Jordan Spence D	17:34	1	1	2
43	Tyler Kleven D	17:02	1	1	2

4 points this season

Power play unit 1

2:34 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Tim Stützle F	22:54	7	7	14
19	Drake Batherson F	18:14	4	4	8
24	Dylan Cozens F	17:17	0	2	2
34	Stephen Halliday F	15:20	3	2	5
85	Jake Sanderson D	26:09	0	2	2

31 points this season

Power play unit 2

1:31 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Shane Pinto F	20:17	2	4	6
71	Ridly Greig F	19:07	1	1	2
28	Claude Giroux F	18:44	2	4	6
20	Fabian Zetterlund F	15:53	1	3	4
26	Carter Yakemchuk D	17:53	1	1	2

20 points this season

12PintoF

71GreigF

43KlevenD NM33MatinpaloD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:11 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Shane Pinto F	20:17	2	4	6
71	Ridly Greig F	19:07	1	1	2
43	Tyler Kleven D	17:02	1	1	2
33	Nikolas Matinpalo D	16:53	0	2	2

12 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:31 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Tim Stützle F	22:54	7	7	14
22	Michael Amadio F	13:55	2	2	4
2	Artem Zub D	18:46	0	1	1
43	Tyler Kleven D	17:02	1	1	2

21 points this season

Goalies: Linus Ullmark (Projected) · Samuel Ersson #30 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (35)

Ivan Barbashev · Johnmaxmena2, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Eichel · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Mark Stone · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brett Howden · The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0
William Karlsson · Frankie Fouganthin, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alexander Holtz · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Tomáš Hertl · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nic Dowd · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Raphael Lavoie · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Brayden McNabb · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Shea Theodore · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Rasmus Andersson · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jeremy Lauzon · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Noah Hanifin · Photo by Jamie Kellner., CC BY-SA 3.0
Dylan Coghlan · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Adin Hill · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Carter Hart · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tim Stützle · BKLuis, CC BY-SA 4.0
Claude Giroux · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ridly Greig · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Shane Pinto · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Amadio · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Warren Foegele · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Dylan Cozens · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Drake Batherson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Nick Cousins · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Hayden Hodgson · m_kania, CC BY 2.0
Jake Sanderson · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Artem Zub · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Carter Yakemchuk · Hockeywithry, CC0
Jordan Spence · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tyler Kleven · Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0
Samuel Ersson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jonas Johansson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Linus Ullmark · Calle Eklund/ V-wolf, CC BY-SA 3.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Carter Hart VEG

.888 save percentage

2.87 GAA · 4–3–0 · 7 starts

Linus Ullmark OTT

.945 save percentage

1.33 GAA · 7–1–0 · 8 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Carter Hart · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Linus Ullmark · Calle Eklund/ V-wolf, CC BY-SA 3.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Mark StoneVEG · RW · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8834%2.91
Tim StützleOTT · C · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7532%3.11
Brett HowdenVEG · C · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5527%3.70
Jack EichelVEG · C · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5724%4.09
Drake BathersonOTT · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4422%4.53
Trevor ConnellyVEG · LW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4221%4.86
Tomáš HertlVEG · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4120%4.92
Stephen HallidayOTT · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3318%5.48
Claude GirouxOTT · RW · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2315%6.53
Shane PintoOTT · C · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2215%6.61

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (8)

Mark Stone · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tim Stützle · BKLuis, CC BY-SA 4.0
Brett Howden · The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Eichel · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Drake Batherson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Tomáš Hertl · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Claude Giroux · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Shane Pinto · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators?

The numbers side with Vegas Golden Knights (58%) at home against Ottawa Senators, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Vegas Golden Knights have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. Ottawa Senators have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Vegas Golden Knights sit 2nd in the Western Conference, while Ottawa Senators sit 5th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Vegas Golden Knights rate +0.15 and Ottawa Senators −0.10 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.25 goals to Vegas Golden Knights. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Vegas Golden Knights 48% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Vegas Golden Knights −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (6.2 projected).

Vegas Golden Knights to win, overtime and shootout included (58%). Projected score: 3–2.