NHL

San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres prediction

San Jose Sharks6–4–1 · Home Buffalo Sabres4–4–2 · Away10:30 PMOct 27

57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%SAN57%SAN

San Jose Sharks to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.75 · projected 3–2

Our model makes San Jose Sharks 57% favourites at home against Buffalo Sabres, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SANSan Jose Sharks in 60'

47%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BUFBuffalo Sabres in 60'

33%

Game flow

SAN 3.2 · BUF 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.8

P2 · 1.3–0.8

P3 · 0.7–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)San Jose Sharks57%1.75
Regulation result (60 minutes)San Jose Sharks47%2.14
Puck lineBuffalo Sabres +1.569%1.45
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

San Jose Sharks

57%fair 1.75

Regulation result (60 minutes)

San Jose Sharks

47%fair 2.14

Puck line

Buffalo Sabres +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

San Jose Sharks

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

8:14 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
2	Will Smith LW	16:54	3	3	6
71	Macklin Celebrini C	23:11	5	9	14
51	Collin Graf RW	19:32	2	1	3

23 points this season

44SherwoodLW

77MisaC

41StenbergRW

2nd line

10:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Kiefer Sherwood LW	18:39	1	4	5
77	Michael Misa C	14:21	1	4	5
41	Ivar Stenberg RW	13:58	3	4	7

17 points this season

23GoodrowLW

10DellandreaC

63OstapchukRW

3rd line

6:45 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Barclay Goodrow LW	13:41	0	2	2
10	Ty Dellandrea C	15:26	0	0	0
63	Zack Ostapchuk RW	11:00	1	0	1

3 points this season

4th line: No such unit in that game.

65TroubaD

6DickinsonD

1st pair

15:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
65	Jacob Trouba D	23:47	2	4	6
6	Sam Dickinson D	19:47	0	1	1

7 points this season

25NurseD

7KesselringD

2nd pair

14:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
25	Darnell Nurse D	21:52	1	1	2
7	Michael Kesselring D	18:12	0	2	2

4 points this season

9OrlovD NA5AllanD

3rd pair

12:48 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Dmitry Orlov D	16:51	1	3	4
5	Nolan Allan D	16:34	2	0	2

6 points this season

Power play unit 1

1:55 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Macklin Celebrini F	23:11	5	9	14
2	Will Smith F	16:54	3	3	6
27	Mason Marchment F	14:15	3	0	3
41	Ivar Stenberg F	13:58	3	4	7
9	Dmitry Orlov D	16:51	1	3	4

34 points this season

Power play unit 2

0:42 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
51	Collin Graf F	19:32	2	1	3
44	Kiefer Sherwood F	18:39	1	4	5
77	Michael Misa F	14:21	1	4	5
73	Tyler Toffoli F	11:06	4	4	8
65	Jacob Trouba D	23:47	2	4	6

27 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

0:55 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Macklin Celebrini F	23:11	5	9	14
44	Kiefer Sherwood F	18:39	1	4	5
6	Sam Dickinson D	19:47	0	1	1
7	Michael Kesselring D	18:12	0	2	2

22 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:47 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
51	Collin Graf F	19:32	2	1	3
10	Ty Dellandrea F	15:26	0	0	0
65	Jacob Trouba D	23:47	2	4	6
6	Sam Dickinson D	19:47	0	1	1

10 points this season

Goalies: Yaroslav Askarov #30 (Projected) · Alex Nedeljkovic #33 (Backup)

Buffalo Sabres

Last game: Oct 21

1LuukkonenProjected

ZB6BensonLW NO86OstlundC JQ22QuinnRW

1st line

8:40 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Zach Benson LW	21:21	0	5	5
86	Noah Ostlund C	21:40	2	5	7
22	Jack Quinn RW	20:45	5	4	9

21 points this season

JK20KulichLW TT72ThompsonC JD91DoanRW

2nd line

8:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Jiří Kulich LW	13:42	1	2	3
72	Tage Thompson C	20:06	5	4	9
91	Josh Doan RW	13:32	1	1	2

14 points this season

JZ17ZuckerLW JN9NorrisC KH94HeleniusRW

3rd line

4:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Jason Zucker LW	12:16	1	0	1
9	Josh Norris C	13:43	2	1	3
94	Konsta Helenius RW	9:07	1	1	2

6 points this season

BM29MalenstynLW RM71McLeodC PK19KrebsRW

4th line

5:00 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
29	Beck Malenstyn LW	10:07	0	2	2
71	Ryan McLeod C	13:06	1	1	2
19	Peyton Krebs RW	8:49	0	4	4

8 points this season

RD26DahlinD MS23SamuelssonD

1st pair

14:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
26	Rasmus Dahlin D	26:27	2	2	4
23	Mattias Samuelsson D	22:51	2	5	7

11 points this season

OP25PowerD OZ8ZellwegerD

2nd pair

12:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
25	Owen Power D	26:12	2	6	8
8	Olen Zellweger D	18:11	2	1	3

11 points this season

ZM73MetsaD LC46CrevierD

3rd pair

4:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
73	Zach Metsa D	10:43	0	2	2
46	Louis Crevier D	10:30	0	1	1

3 points this season

NO86OstlundF ZB6BensonF JQ22QuinnF

TT72ThompsonF RD26DahlinD

Power play unit 1

4:41 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
86	Noah Ostlund F	21:40	2	5	7
6	Zach Benson F	21:21	0	5	5
22	Jack Quinn F	20:45	5	4	9
72	Tage Thompson F	20:06	5	4	9
26	Rasmus Dahlin D	26:27	2	2	4

34 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

ZB6BensonF RM71McLeodF

OP25PowerD MS23SamuelssonD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:26 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Zach Benson F	21:21	0	5	5
71	Ryan McLeod F	13:06	1	1	2
25	Owen Power D	26:12	2	6	8
23	Mattias Samuelsson D	22:51	2	5	7

22 points this season

JN9NorrisF BM29MalenstynF

OZ8ZellwegerD ZM73MetsaD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:15 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Josh Norris F	13:43	2	1	3
29	Beck Malenstyn F	10:07	0	2	2
8	Olen Zellweger D	18:11	2	1	3
73	Zach Metsa D	10:43	0	2	2

10 points this season

Goalies: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen #1 (Projected) · Colten Ellis #92 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (19)

Will Smith · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Macklin Celebrini · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Collin Graf · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kiefer Sherwood · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Michael Misa · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ivar Stenberg · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Barclay Goodrow · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ty Dellandrea · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Zack Ostapchuk · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Trouba · Stefan Brending ( 2eight ), CC BY-SA 3.0 de
Sam Dickinson · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Darnell Nurse · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Kesselring · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Dmitry Orlov · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mason Marchment · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Tyler Toffoli · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Yaroslav Askarov · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Nedeljkovic · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Yaroslav Askarov SAN

.883 save percentage

3.43 GAA · 3–4–0 · 7 starts

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen BUF

.864 save percentage

3.53 GAA · 3–3–2 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Yaroslav Askarov · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Macklin CelebriniSAN · C · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5629%3.42
Jack QuinnBUF · RW · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5726%3.78
Tage ThompsonBUF · C · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5426%3.87
Tyler ToffoliSAN · C · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4426%3.90
Ivar StenbergSAN · LW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3322%4.52
Mason MarchmentSAN · LW · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3220%5.08
Will SmithSAN · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3218%5.50
Olen ZellwegerBUF · D · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2317%5.72
Josh NorrisBUF · C · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2216%6.18
Owen PowerBUF · D · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2315%6.84

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

Macklin Celebrini · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Tyler Toffoli · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ivar Stenberg · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mason Marchment · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Smith · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres?

Our model makes San Jose Sharks 57% favourites at home against Buffalo Sabres, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

San Jose Sharks have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Buffalo Sabres have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

San Jose Sharks sit 8th in the Western Conference, while Buffalo Sabres sit 13th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, San Jose Sharks rate −0.12 and Buffalo Sabres −0.32 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.20 goals to San Jose Sharks. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why San Jose Sharks win it in regulation only 47% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 57%.

Our own lines for this game: San Jose Sharks −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (6.2 projected).

San Jose Sharks to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2.