AHL

Springfield Thunderbirds vs Providence Bruins prediction

Springfield Thunderbirds2–3–2 · Home Providence Bruins2–6–0 · Away07:05 PMOct 30

48%win chance incl. overtime52%

Our pick

52%PRO52%PRO

Providence Bruins to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.91 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Providence Bruins (52%) on the road against Springfield Thunderbirds, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

SPRSpringfield Thunderbirds in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

PROProvidence Bruins in 60'

42%

Game flow

SPR 2.6 · PRO 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Providence Bruins52%1.91
Regulation result (60 minutes)Providence Bruins42%2.37
Puck lineSpringfield Thunderbirds +1.574%1.36
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Providence Bruins

52%fair 1.91

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Providence Bruins

42%fair 2.37

Puck line

Springfield Thunderbirds +1.5

74%fair 1.36

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. EyssimontPRO · 7 G in 5 GP · 5 GP7841%2.46
B. GauncePRO · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3322%4.57
H. JokiharjuPRO · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2418%5.46
B. HalonenPRO · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1413%7.65
L. ReichelPRO · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1312%8.13

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Springfield Thunderbirds vs Providence Bruins?

The numbers side with Providence Bruins (52%) on the road against Springfield Thunderbirds, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Springfield Thunderbirds have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Providence Bruins have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Springfield Thunderbirds sit 6th in the Atlantic Division, while Providence Bruins sit 7th in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Springfield Thunderbirds rate −0.15 and Providence Bruins −0.13 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.02 goals to Providence Bruins. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Providence Bruins 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Springfield Thunderbirds 1, Providence Bruins 0); the latest finished Providence Bruins 0–2 Springfield Thunderbirds on 2026-10-04.

Our own lines for this game: Providence Bruins −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (5.6 projected).

Providence Bruins to win, overtime and shootout included (52%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.