AHL

Iowa Wild vs Charlotte Checkers prediction

Iowa Wild3–4–2 · Home Charlotte Checkers5–2–0 · Away08:00 PMOct 30

45%win chance incl. overtime55%

Our pick

55%CHA55%CHA

Charlotte Checkers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.83 · projected 2–3

Charlotte Checkers are the pick on the road against Iowa Wild: a 55% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

IOWIowa Wild in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

CHACharlotte Checkers in 60'

44%

Game flow

IOW 2.6 · CHA 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 0.8–0.8

P3 · 0.8–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Charlotte Checkers55%1.83
Regulation result (60 minutes)Charlotte Checkers44%2.26
Puck lineIowa Wild +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Charlotte Checkers

55%fair 1.83

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Charlotte Checkers

44%fair 2.26

Puck line

Iowa Wild +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. KirklandIOW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3422%4.50
M. ShawIOW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3321%4.76
H. HaightIOW · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3119%5.29
C. StramelIOW · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1214%6.91
L. RiegerIOW · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2014%7.16

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Iowa Wild vs Charlotte Checkers?

Charlotte Checkers are the pick on the road against Iowa Wild: a 55% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Iowa Wild have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Charlotte Checkers have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Iowa Wild sit 4th in the Central Division, while Charlotte Checkers sit 1st in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Iowa Wild rate −0.11 and Charlotte Checkers +0.04 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.15 goals to Charlotte Checkers. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Charlotte Checkers win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%.

Our own lines for this game: Charlotte Checkers −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (5.6 projected).

Charlotte Checkers to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.