AHL

Belleville Senators vs Hartford Wolf Pack prediction

Belleville Senators4–2–2 · Home Hartford Wolf Pack4–5–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 30

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%BEL53%BEL

Belleville Senators to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.88 · projected 3–2

Belleville Senators are the pick at home against Hartford Wolf Pack: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

BELBelleville Senators in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

HARHartford Wolf Pack in 60'

37%

Game flow

BEL 3.0 · HAR 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.6

P2 · 1.0–1.0

P3 · 1.2–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Belleville Senators53%1.88
Regulation result (60 minutes)Belleville Senators43%2.31
Puck lineHartford Wolf Pack +1.572%1.39
Total goalsOver 5.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Belleville Senators

53%fair 1.88

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Belleville Senators

43%fair 2.31

Puck line

Hartford Wolf Pack +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Over 5.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. HalttunenBEL · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5530%3.36
L. GreentreeHAR · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4328%3.54
T. BoucherBEL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3422%4.57
P. TomasinoBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3521%4.71
S. BlaisBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3221%4.71
T. RaddyshHAR · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3121%4.72
R. SuzukiBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3520%4.91
A. BlidhHAR · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1115%6.57
G. GawdinHAR · 1 G in 7 GP · 7 GP1414%7.27
J. DowlingHAR · 1 G in 7 GP · 7 GP1014%7.27

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Belleville Senators vs Hartford Wolf Pack?

Belleville Senators are the pick at home against Hartford Wolf Pack: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Belleville Senators have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Hartford Wolf Pack have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Belleville Senators sit 3rd in the North Division, while Hartford Wolf Pack sit 3rd in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Belleville Senators rate +0.11 and Hartford Wolf Pack −0.21 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.32 goals to Belleville Senators. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Belleville Senators 43% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Belleville Senators −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 53% (6.1 projected).

Belleville Senators to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.