AHL

Bakersfield Condors vs Abbotsford Canucks prediction

Bakersfield Condors2–4–0 · Home Abbotsford Canucks3–2–1 · Away10:10 PMOct 30

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%ABB54%ABB

Abbotsford Canucks to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.84 · projected 2–3

Abbotsford Canucks are the pick on the road against Bakersfield Condors: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

BAKBakersfield Condors in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

ABBAbbotsford Canucks in 60'

45%

Game flow

BAK 2.9 · ABB 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.5–0.9

P2 · 1.0–1.4

P3 · 1.4–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Abbotsford Canucks54%1.84
Regulation result (60 minutes)Abbotsford Canucks45%2.24
Puck lineBakersfield Condors +1.570%1.42
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Abbotsford Canucks

54%fair 1.84

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Abbotsford Canucks

45%fair 2.24

Puck line

Bakersfield Condors +1.5

70%fair 1.42

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Bakersfield Condors vs Abbotsford Canucks?

Abbotsford Canucks are the pick on the road against Bakersfield Condors: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Bakersfield Condors have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Abbotsford Canucks have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Bakersfield Condors sit 10th in the Pacific Division, while Abbotsford Canucks sit 8th in the Pacific Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Bakersfield Condors rate −0.10 and Abbotsford Canucks +0.06 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.16 goals to Abbotsford Canucks. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Abbotsford Canucks win it in regulation only 45% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 54%.

Our own lines for this game: Abbotsford Canucks −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.3 projected).

Abbotsford Canucks to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.