National League

Ajoie vs Bern prediction

Ajoie8–5–2 · Home Bern7–3–3 · Away07:45 PMOct 30

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%AJO51%AJO

Ajoie to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 3–2

Ajoie are the pick at home against Bern: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

AJOAjoie in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BERBern in 60'

40%

Game flow

AJO 2.8 · BER 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.7

P2 · 1.0–1.1

P3 · 1.2–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ajoie51%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ajoie41%2.46
Puck lineBern +1.575%1.34
Total goalsUnder 5.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ajoie

51%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ajoie

41%fair 2.46

Puck line

Bern +1.5

75%fair 1.34

Total goals

Under 5.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

R. AbolsBER · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6627%3.67
J. NattinenAJO · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7326%3.89
A. HonkaAJO · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7225%4.00
J. HonkaAJO · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5324%4.15
W. MerelaBER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4422%4.57
E. BemstromBER · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4120%4.99
K. TanusAJO · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6319%5.13
J. TurkulainenAJO · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4618%5.54
D. RohrbachBER · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4018%5.62
R. DionicioBER · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3316%6.12

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ajoie vs Bern?

Ajoie are the pick at home against Bern: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Ajoie have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Bern have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Ajoie sit 6th, while Bern sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ajoie rate −0.11 and Bern +0.20 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.31 goals to Bern. Home ice is worth about 0.34 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Ajoie win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Ajoie 1, Bern 0); the latest finished Bern 2–3 Ajoie on 2026-09-25.

Our own lines for this game: Ajoie −1.5 on the puck line (25%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 51% (5.8 projected).

Ajoie to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.