Oberliga Nord

Herner EV vs Rostock prediction

Herner EV3–8–0 · Home Rostock3–7–1 · Away08:00 PMOct 30

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%HER54%HER

Herner EV to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 4–3

Herner EV are the pick at home against Rostock: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

After 60 minutes

HERHerner EV in 60'

45%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

ROSRostock in 60'

38%

Game flow

HER 3.4 · ROS 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–1.2

P2 · 1.7–1.0

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Herner EV54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Herner EV45%2.22
Puck lineRostock +1.570%1.43
Total goalsOver 6.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes93%1.08

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Herner EV

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Herner EV

45%fair 2.22

Puck line

Rostock +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Over 6.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

93%fair 1.08

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Herner EV vs Rostock?

Herner EV are the pick at home against Rostock: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

Herner EV have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. Rostock have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 4.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Herner EV sit 11th, while Rostock sit 10th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Herner EV rate −0.47 and Rostock −0.24 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.23 goals to Rostock. Home ice is worth about 0.47 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Herner EV 45% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 17%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Herner EV 0, Rostock 1); the latest finished Rostock 4–1 Herner EV on 2026-09-27.

Our own lines for this game: Herner EV −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.8 projected).

Herner EV to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 4–3. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.