NHL

Dallas Stars vs New Jersey Devils prediction

Dallas Stars6–3–1 · Home New Jersey Devils6–4–0 · Away08:00 PMOct 27

58%win chance incl. overtime42%

Our pick

58%DAL58%DAL

Dallas Stars to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.72 · projected 3–2

Dallas Stars are the pick at home against New Jersey Devils: a 58% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

DALDallas Stars in 60'

47%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

NEWNew Jersey Devils in 60'

31%

Game flow

DAL 2.9 · NEW 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.5–0.7

P2 · 1.3–1.0

P3 · 1.1–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Dallas Stars58%1.72
Regulation result (60 minutes)Dallas Stars47%2.12
Puck lineNew Jersey Devils +1.569%1.45
Total goalsUnder 5.557%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Dallas Stars

58%fair 1.72

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Dallas Stars

47%fair 2.12

Puck line

New Jersey Devils +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Under 5.5

57%fair 1.77

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Dallas Stars

Last game: Oct 22

29OettingerProjected

SS18SteelLW WJ53JohnstonC MR96RantanenRW

1st line

7:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Sam Steel LW	16:09	1	2	3
53	Wyatt Johnston C	19:55	1	5	6
96	Mikko Rantanen RW	20:09	5	7	12

21 points this season

JR21RobertsonLW RH24HintzC TS91SeguinRW

2nd line

7:00 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Jason Robertson LW	21:42	3	7	10
24	Roope Hintz C	15:20	5	3	8
91	Tyler Seguin RW	15:09	2	2	4

22 points this season

JB14BennLW JH49HryckowianC AH25HyryRW

3rd line

7:32 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
14	Jamie Benn LW	13:22	1	1	2
49	Justin Hryckowian C	17:22	0	0	0
25	Arttu Hyry RW	16:11	3	0	3

5 points this season

JK22KivirantaLW CB15BlackwellC RF12FaksaRW

4th line

4:29 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Joel Kiviranta LW	10:02	1	0	1
15	Colin Blackwell C	9:26	0	0	0
12	Radek Faksa RW	7:23	0	1	1

2 points this season

MH4HeiskanenD TH55HarleyD

1st pair

14:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Miro Heiskanen D	29:20	3	4	7
55	Thomas Harley D	28:27	0	3	3

10 points this season

LB6BichselD TM57MyersD

2nd pair

7:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Lian Bichsel D	17:47	0	0	0
57	Tyler Myers D	15:44	0	0	0

0 points this season

NL5LundkvistD KC20CapobiancoD

3rd pair

6:37 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
5	Nils Lundkvist D	16:47	0	2	2
20	Kyle Capobianco D	12:27	0	0	0

2 points this season

JR21RobertsonF MR96RantanenF WJ53JohnstonF

RH24HintzF MH4HeiskanenD

Power play unit 1

2:06 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Jason Robertson F	21:42	3	7	10
96	Mikko Rantanen F	20:09	5	7	12
53	Wyatt Johnston F	19:55	1	5	6
24	Roope Hintz F	15:20	5	3	8
4	Miro Heiskanen D	29:20	3	4	7

43 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

JK22KivirantaF RF12FaksaF

MH4HeiskanenD TH55HarleyD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:17 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Joel Kiviranta F	10:02	1	0	1
12	Radek Faksa F	7:23	0	1	1
4	Miro Heiskanen D	29:20	3	4	7
55	Thomas Harley D	28:27	0	3	3

12 points this season

AH25HyryF SS18SteelF

LB6BichselD TM57MyersD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:57 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
25	Arttu Hyry F	16:11	3	0	3
18	Sam Steel F	16:09	1	2	3
6	Lian Bichsel D	17:47	0	0	0
57	Tyler Myers D	15:44	0	0	0

6 points this season

Goalies: Jake Oettinger #29 (Projected) · Casey DeSmith #1 (Backup)

New Jersey Devils

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

11:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Timo Meier LW	16:40	1	3	4
13	Nico Hischier C	16:31	5	2	7
77	Luke Evangelista RW	17:16	3	2	5

16 points this season

63BrattLW

86HughesC AG81GritsyukRW

2nd line

11:18 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
63	Jesper Bratt LW	15:28	2	6	8
86	Jack Hughes C	18:49	3	8	11
81	Arseny Gritsyuk RW	15:40	5	2	7

26 points this season

70BoqvistLW

12GlassC

16BrownRW

3rd line

8:33 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
70	Jesper Boqvist LW	13:41	3	1	4
12	Cody Glass C	13:45	1	0	1
16	Connor Brown RW	13:00	0	2	2

7 points this season

17RodriguesLW

91MercerC

39ManthaRW

4th line

10:07 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Evan Rodrigues LW	12:55	2	2	4
91	Dawson Mercer C	13:55	0	4	4
39	Anthony Mantha RW	11:34	2	1	3

11 points this season

43HughesD

22PesceD

1st pair

18:01 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4
22	Brett Pesce D	21:32	0	3	3

7 points this season

71SiegenthalerD

7HamiltonD

2nd pair

18:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Jonas Siegenthaler D	21:15	0	2	2
7	Dougie Hamilton D	21:09	1	4	5

7 points this season

JK8KovacevicD

47ChisholmD

3rd pair

13:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Johnathan Kovacevic D	15:41	0	0	0
47	Declan Chisholm D	14:50	1	1	2

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

1:35 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
86	Jack Hughes F	18:49	3	8	11
77	Luke Evangelista F	17:16	3	2	5
13	Nico Hischier F	16:31	5	2	7
63	Jesper Bratt F	15:28	2	6	8
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4

35 points this season

Power play unit 2

0:52 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Timo Meier F	16:40	1	3	4
91	Dawson Mercer F	13:55	0	4	4
17	Evan Rodrigues F	12:55	2	2	4
22	Brett Pesce D	21:32	0	3	3
47	Declan Chisholm D	14:50	1	1	2

17 points this season

AG81GritsyukF

17RodriguesF

43HughesD JK8KovacevicD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:32 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Arseny Gritsyuk F	15:40	5	2	7
17	Evan Rodrigues F	12:55	2	2	4
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4
8	Johnathan Kovacevic D	15:41	0	0	0

15 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Jake Allen #34 (Projected) · Nico Daws #50 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (20)

Jake Oettinger · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Casey DeSmith · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Timo Meier · Djmelvis, CC BY-SA 4.0
Nico Hischier · 1815online, CC BY 4.0
Luke Evangelista · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jesper Bratt · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jack Hughes · YESNetwork, CC BY 3.0
Jesper Boqvist · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Cody Glass · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Connor Brown · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Evan Rodrigues · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Dawson Mercer · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Anthony Mantha · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Luke Hughes · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brett Pesce · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jonas Siegenthaler · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Dougie Hamilton · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Declan Chisholm · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nico Daws · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jake Allen · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Jake Oettinger DAL

.939 save percentage

1.23 GAA · 5–2–1 · 3 shutouts · 8 starts

Jake Allen NEW

.883 save percentage

3.15 GAA · 4–2–0 · 6 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Jake Oettinger · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jake Allen · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Roope HintzDAL · C · 5 G in 8 GP · 8 GP5531%3.28
Mikko RantanenDAL · RW · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5629%3.40
Arseny GritsyukNEW · RW · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5525%4.05
Nico HischierNEW · C · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5423%4.26
Arttu HyryDAL · RW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3321%4.68
Jason RobertsonDAL · LW · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3620%5.04
Miro HeiskanenDAL · D · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3419%5.19
Jesper BoqvistNEW · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3216%6.44
Jack HughesNEW · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3615%6.57
Luke EvangelistaNEW · RW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3215%6.73

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (4)

Nico Hischier · 1815online, CC BY 4.0
Jesper Boqvist · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jack Hughes · YESNetwork, CC BY 3.0
Luke Evangelista · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Dallas Stars vs New Jersey Devils?

Dallas Stars are the pick at home against New Jersey Devils: a 58% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Dallas Stars have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch. New Jersey Devils have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Dallas Stars sit 6th in the Western Conference, while New Jersey Devils sit 7th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Dallas Stars rate +0.27 and New Jersey Devils +0.02 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.25 goals to Dallas Stars. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Dallas Stars win it in regulation only 47% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 58%.

Our own lines for this game: Dallas Stars −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 57% (5.5 projected).

Dallas Stars to win, overtime and shootout included (58%). Projected score: 3–2.