NHL

Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins prediction

Carolina Hurricanes9–2–2 · Home Boston Bruins9–2–1 · Away08:00 PMOct 27

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%CAR51%CAR

Carolina Hurricanes to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.95 · projected 3–2

Carolina Hurricanes are the pick at home against Boston Bruins: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

CARCarolina Hurricanes in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BOSBoston Bruins in 60'

38%

Game flow

CAR 3.1 · BOS 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 1.4–1.0

P3 · 1.0–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Carolina Hurricanes51%1.95
Regulation result (60 minutes)Carolina Hurricanes41%2.43
Puck lineBoston Bruins +1.573%1.36
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Carolina Hurricanes

51%fair 1.95

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Carolina Hurricanes

41%fair 2.43

Puck line

Boston Bruins +1.5

73%fair 1.36

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Carolina Hurricanes

Last game: Oct 24

52KochetkovProjected

NE27EhlersLW LS22StankovenC JB53BlakeRW

1st line

12:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
27	Nikolaj Ehlers LW	14:53	4	7	11
22	Logan Stankoven C	14:41	8	3	11
53	Jackson Blake RW	16:24	2	9	11

33 points this season

JM48MartinookLW JK82KotkaniemiC SJ24JarvisRW

2nd line

12:14 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Jordan Martinook LW	15:37	1	5	6
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi C	14:33	3	3	6
24	Seth Jarvis RW	14:28	1	2	3

15 points this season

WC28CarrierLW SA20AhoC AS37SvechnikovRW

3rd line

11:24 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	William Carrier LW	13:21	0	7	7
20	Sebastian Aho C	16:36	7	10	17
37	Andrei Svechnikov RW	13:30	6	6	12

36 points this season

ER50RobinsonLW

76Brind'AmourC ND44DeslauriersRW

4th line

7:39 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
50	Eric Robinson LW	9:34	2	4	6
76	Skyler Brind'Amour C	9:12	0	0	0
44	Nicolas Deslauriers RW	9:25	2	1	3

9 points this season

JC5ChatfieldD JS74SlavinD

1st pair

17:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
5	Jalen Chatfield D	19:42	1	2	3
74	Jaccob Slavin D	19:27	0	3	3

6 points this season

KM19MillerD SW26WalkerD

2nd pair

16:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	K'Andre Miller D	20:15	1	3	4
26	Sean Walker D	17:58	1	6	7

11 points this season

SG4GostisbehereD JV8ValimakiD

3rd pair

12:43 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Shayne Gostisbehere D	15:24	2	7	9
8	Juuso Valimaki D	14:00	1	1	2

11 points this season

SA20AhoF JB53BlakeF NE27EhlersF

AS37SvechnikovF SG4GostisbehereD

Power play unit 1

1:10 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Sebastian Aho F	16:36	7	10	17
53	Jackson Blake F	16:24	2	9	11
27	Nikolaj Ehlers F	14:53	4	7	11
37	Andrei Svechnikov F	13:30	6	6	12
4	Shayne Gostisbehere D	15:24	2	7	9

60 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

JM48MartinookF

76Brind'AmourF

JC5ChatfieldD JS74SlavinD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:58 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Jordan Martinook F	15:37	1	5	6
76	Skyler Brind'Amour F	9:12	0	0	0
5	Jalen Chatfield D	19:42	1	2	3
74	Jaccob Slavin D	19:27	0	3	3

12 points this season

SA20AhoF SJ24JarvisF

KM19MillerD SW26WalkerD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:45 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Sebastian Aho F	16:36	7	10	17
24	Seth Jarvis F	14:28	1	2	3
19	K'Andre Miller D	20:15	1	3	4
26	Sean Walker D	17:58	1	6	7

31 points this season

Goalies: Pyotr Kochetkov #52 (Projected) · Brandon Bussi #32 (Backup)

Boston Bruins

Last game: Oct 24

1st line

10:00 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	JJ Peterka LW	15:24	4	4	8
18	Pavel Zacha C	16:48	2	4	6
88	David Pastrňák RW	16:30	7	10	17

31 points this season

MK92KhusnutdinovLW

93MintenC

39GeekieRW

2nd line

6:25 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
92	Marat Khusnutdinov LW	13:01	3	3	6
93	Fraser Minten C	14:58	5	5	10
39	Morgan Geekie RW	12:08	1	6	7

23 points this season

11MittelstadtLW

28LindholmC

44HagensRW

3rd line

8:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
11	Casey Mittelstadt LW	12:30	4	2	6
28	Elias Lindholm C	14:27	4	6	10
44	James Hagens RW	10:45	4	5	9

25 points this season

84JeannotLW MK47KastelicC

51PoitrasRW

4th line

4:01 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
84	Tanner Jeannot LW	7:16	1	2	3
47	Mark Kastelic C	7:47	2	4	6
51	Matthew Poitras RW	6:03	4	3	7

16 points this season

73McAvoyD

27LindholmD

1st pair

12:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
73	Charlie McAvoy D	19:45	1	5	6
27	Hampus Lindholm D	17:33	1	3	4

10 points this season

91ZadorovD

17BorgenD

2nd pair

10:48 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
91	Nikita Zadorov D	15:57	0	4	4
17	Will Borgen D	15:42	2	2	4

8 points this season

6LohreiD FB42BrunetD

3rd pair

10:32 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Mason Lohrei D	14:28	2	3	5
42	Frederic Brunet D	12:54	1	2	3

8 points this season

Power play unit 1

3:19 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Pavel Zacha F	16:48	2	4	6
88	David Pastrňák F	16:30	7	10	17
28	Elias Lindholm F	14:27	4	6	10
39	Morgan Geekie F	12:08	1	6	7
73	Charlie McAvoy D	19:45	1	5	6

46 points this season

Power play unit 2

1:08 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	JJ Peterka F	15:24	4	4	8
93	Fraser Minten F	14:58	5	5	10
11	Casey Mittelstadt F	12:30	4	2	6
44	James Hagens F	10:45	4	5	9
6	Mason Lohrei D	14:28	2	3	5

38 points this season

28LindholmF MK92KhusnutdinovF

91ZadorovD

17BorgenD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:15 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Elias Lindholm F	14:27	4	6	10
92	Marat Khusnutdinov F	13:01	3	3	6
91	Nikita Zadorov D	15:57	0	4	4
17	Will Borgen D	15:42	2	2	4

24 points this season

93MintenF MK92KhusnutdinovF

73McAvoyD

27LindholmD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:14 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
93	Fraser Minten F	14:58	5	5	10
92	Marat Khusnutdinov F	13:01	3	3	6
73	Charlie McAvoy D	19:45	1	5	6
27	Hampus Lindholm D	17:33	1	3	4

26 points this season

Goalies: Jeremy Swayman #1 (Projected) · Michael Dipietro #30 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (20)

Skyler Brind'Amour · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Pyotr Kochetkov · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Brandon Bussi · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
JJ Peterka · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Pavel Zacha · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
David Pastrňák · Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0
Fraser Minten · Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0
Morgan Geekie · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Casey Mittelstadt · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Elias Lindholm · Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0
James Hagens · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Tanner Jeannot · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Matthew Poitras · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie McAvoy · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Hampus Lindholm · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nikita Zadorov · m_kania, CC BY 2.0
Will Borgen · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mason Lohrei · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jeremy Swayman · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Michael Dipietro · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Pyotr Kochetkov CAR

.916 save percentage

1.70 GAA · 7–0–0 · 1 shutout · 7 starts

Jeremy Swayman BOS

.920 save percentage

2.20 GAA · 7–1–1 · 1 shutout · 9 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Pyotr Kochetkov · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jeremy Swayman · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Logan StankovenCAR · C · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8631%3.25
David PastrňákBOS · RW · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7930%3.34
Sebastian AhoCAR · C · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7525%3.92
Mark JankowskiCAR · LW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6125%4.06
Andrei SvechnikovCAR · RW · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6123%4.28
Fraser MintenBOS · C · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5322%4.65
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4621%4.79
Casey MittelstadtBOS · C · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.81
Matthew PoitrasBOS · C · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4420%4.94
James HagensBOS · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4519%5.21

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

David Pastrňák · Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0
Fraser Minten · Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0
Casey Mittelstadt · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Matthew Poitras · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
James Hagens · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins?

Carolina Hurricanes are the pick at home against Boston Bruins: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Carolina Hurricanes have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Boston Bruins have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Carolina Hurricanes sit 1st in the Eastern Conference, while Boston Bruins sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Carolina Hurricanes rate +0.52 and Boston Bruins +0.64 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.12 goals to Boston Bruins. Home ice is worth about 0.21 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Carolina Hurricanes win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

Our own lines for this game: Carolina Hurricanes −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.3 projected).

Carolina Hurricanes to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.