AHL

Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs Belleville Senators prediction

Lehigh Valley Phantoms3–2–1 · Home Belleville Senators4–2–2 · Away03:05 PMOct 25

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%BEL54%BEL

Belleville Senators to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.85 · projected 2–3

Belleville Senators are the pick at 54%, with a projected 3–2 win over Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

After 60 minutes

LEHLehigh Valley Phantoms in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

BELBelleville Senators in 60'

44%

Game flow

LEH 3.0 · BEL 3.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.9

P2 · 1.4–1.0

P3 · 1.0–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Belleville Senators54%1.85
Regulation result (60 minutes)Belleville Senators44%2.25
Puck lineLehigh Valley Phantoms +1.570%1.42
Total goalsUnder 6.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes92%1.09

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Belleville Senators

54%fair 1.85

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Belleville Senators

44%fair 2.25

Puck line

Lehigh Valley Phantoms +1.5

70%fair 1.42

Total goals

Under 6.5

50%fair 2.00

Both teams to score

Yes

92%fair 1.09

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. HalttunenBEL · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5532%3.14
T. BoucherBEL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3424%4.25
P. TomasinoBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3523%4.38
S. BlaisBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3223%4.38
R. SuzukiBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3522%4.57

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs Belleville Senators?

Belleville Senators are the pick at 54%, with a projected 3–2 win over Lehigh Valley Phantoms.

The model gives Belleville Senators a 54% chance of taking this one, overtime and shootout included, and sees a 3–2 final. That is barely more than a coin flip, so the lean toward the visitors is a thin one. Lehigh Valley Phantoms have the better recent results, winning 3 of their last 5 while Belleville Senators won 2 of their last 5. The form line and the ratings disagree, which is part of why the gap between the sides is so small.

Recent scoring explains the tension. Lehigh Valley Phantoms have put up 3.8 goals a game and conceded 3.2 across that five-game run, while Belleville Senators have scored 4.2 and allowed 3.8. Belleville Senators score more but also give more back, so their games have been looser. Lehigh Valley Phantoms sit 4th in the Atlantic Division and Belleville Senators 5th in the North Division, which puts the two in similar territory in the standings.

The ratings, once adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, lean the other way. Lehigh Valley Phantoms come in at −0.02 goals per game against an average team and Belleville Senators at +0.11, an edge of 0.14 goals to Belleville Senators. Home ice is worth about -0.13 goals a game in this league, which mostly cancels that edge out. That is why the model has Belleville Senators ahead only narrowly rather than clearly.

A tight finish is the base case. About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, and on our numbers Belleville Senators win it in regulation only 45% of the time, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 54%. The market still makes them the favourite, but the price reflects how little separates the two sides. Lehigh Valley Phantoms have a real case through their recent form and home ice, so the pick is a lean rather than a strong call.

The projected 3–2 scoreline sits right on the 6.5 total goals line, and our over at 50% comes with 6.6 projected goals, so the total is close to a toss-up. On the puck line, Belleville Senators −1.5 is priced at 30%, which fits a one-goal projection: a 3–2 final would not cover it. Anyone backing the favourite's spread is asking for a two-goal margin the model does not expect.

Belleville Senators to win, overtime and shootout included (54%), with a projected 3–2 scoreline.