NHL

Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction

Seattle Kraken7–3–1 · Home Toronto Maple Leafs6–4–2 · Away10:00 PMOct 28

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%SEA54%SEA

Seattle Kraken to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.85 · projected 4–3

Seattle Kraken are the pick at home against Toronto Maple Leafs: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

After 60 minutes

SEASeattle Kraken in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

TORToronto Maple Leafs in 60'

36%

Game flow

SEA 3.4 · TOR 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.9

P2 · 1.3–1.2

P3 · 0.9–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Seattle Kraken54%1.85
Regulation result (60 minutes)Seattle Kraken44%2.26
Puck lineToronto Maple Leafs +1.570%1.42
Total goalsOver 6.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes93%1.08

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Seattle Kraken

54%fair 1.85

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Seattle Kraken

44%fair 2.26

Puck line

Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5

70%fair 1.42

Total goals

Over 6.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

93%fair 1.08

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Seattle Kraken

Last game: Oct 22

PG31GrubauerProjected

JM19McCannLW MB10BeniersC JE7EberleRW

1st line

10:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	Jared McCann LW	16:42	3	5	8
10	Matty Beniers C	18:42	3	2	5
7	Jordan Eberle RW	18:19	4	5	9

22 points this season

CS9StephensonLW BM74McMannC MS11SamoskevichRW

2nd line

9:05 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Chandler Stephenson LW	16:37	1	8	9
74	Bobby McMann C	17:02	3	2	5
11	Mackie Samoskevich RW	12:44	5	1	6

20 points this season

BM59MeyersLW FG89GaudreauC RW26WintertonRW

3rd line

9:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
59	Ben Meyers LW	13:07	1	4	5
89	Frederick Gaudreau C	15:25	6	2	8
26	Ryan Winterton RW	11:58	2	4	6

19 points this season

SW51WrightLW BC27CattonC KK84KakkoRW

4th line

8:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
51	Shane Wright LW	11:34	3	1	4
27	Berkly Catton C	14:26	2	6	8
84	Kaapo Kakko RW	13:22	2	7	9

21 points this season

BM62MontourD RE41EvansD

1st pair

16:12 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
62	Brandon Montour D	27:21	2	6	8
41	Ryker Evans D	22:33	2	4	6

14 points this season

VD29DunnD AL6LarssonD

2nd pair

17:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
29	Vince Dunn D	25:53	2	6	8
6	Adam Larsson D	22:26	0	2	2

10 points this season

JM28MahuraD VO46OttavainenD

3rd pair

7:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Josh Mahura D	10:18	0	2	2
46	Ville Ottavainen D	7:51	1	0	1

3 points this season

JE7EberleF BM74McMannF JM19McCannF

CS9StephensonF VD29DunnD

Power play unit 1

2:05 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
7	Jordan Eberle F	18:19	4	5	9
74	Bobby McMann F	17:02	3	2	5
19	Jared McCann F	16:42	3	5	8
9	Chandler Stephenson F	16:37	1	8	9
29	Vince Dunn D	25:53	2	6	8

39 points this season

MB10BeniersF BC27CattonF KK84KakkoF

MS11SamoskevichF BM62MontourD

Power play unit 2

1:31 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Matty Beniers F	18:42	3	2	5
27	Berkly Catton F	14:26	2	6	8
84	Kaapo Kakko F	13:22	2	7	9
11	Mackie Samoskevich F	12:44	5	1	6
62	Brandon Montour D	27:21	2	6	8

36 points this season

FG89GaudreauF BM59MeyersF

VD29DunnD AL6LarssonD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:10 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Frederick Gaudreau F	15:25	6	2	8
59	Ben Meyers F	13:07	1	4	5
29	Vince Dunn D	25:53	2	6	8
6	Adam Larsson D	22:26	0	2	2

23 points this season

MB10BeniersF RW26WintertonF

BM62MontourD RE41EvansD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:40 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Matty Beniers F	18:42	3	2	5
26	Ryan Winterton F	11:58	2	4	6
62	Brandon Montour D	27:21	2	6	8
41	Ryker Evans D	22:33	2	4	6

25 points this season

Goalies: Philipp Grubauer #31 (Projected) · Joey Daccord #35 (Backup)

Toronto Maple Leafs

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

13:46 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Nick Paul LW	17:27	2	3	5
86	Kirill Marchenko C	18:23	6	6	12
88	William Nylander RW	20:12	6	9	15

32 points this season

96RoslovicLW

34MatthewsC EC53CowanRW

2nd line

12:23 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
96	Jack Roslovic LW	15:58	4	5	9
34	Auston Matthews C	19:16	8	9	17
53	Easton Cowan RW	16:48	5	6	11

37 points this season

24DuhaimeLW

73BluegerC

19MacewenRW

3rd line

5:19 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Brandon Duhaime LW	14:14	1	2	3
73	Teddy Blueger C	15:18	1	1	2
19	Zack Macewen RW	7:06	0	2	2

7 points this season

92McKennaLW

15SissonsC

71LettieriRW

4th line

7:12 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
92	Gavin McKenna LW	10:44	3	4	7
15	Colton Sissons C	15:34	2	3	5
71	Vinni Lettieri RW	10:08	0	0	0

12 points this season

43RaddyshD

22McCabeD

1st pair

16:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
43	Darren Raddysh D	24:17	0	5	5
22	Jake McCabe D	21:03	0	1	1

6 points this season

44RiellyD TS28StecherD

2nd pair

14:23 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Morgan Rielly D	20:58	0	7	7
28	Troy Stecher D	20:17	1	1	2

9 points this season

95Ekman-LarssonD

3BlankenburgD

3rd pair

9:34 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	19:22	0	1	1
3	Nick Blankenburg D	11:27	1	0	1

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

2:31 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
88	William Nylander F	20:12	6	9	15
34	Auston Matthews F	19:16	8	9	17
86	Kirill Marchenko F	18:23	6	6	12
92	Gavin McKenna F	10:44	3	4	7
43	Darren Raddysh D	24:17	0	5	5

56 points this season

Power play unit 2

0:35 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Easton Cowan F	16:48	5	6	11
96	Jack Roslovic F	15:58	4	5	9
71	Vinni Lettieri F	10:08	0	0	0
44	Morgan Rielly D	20:58	0	7	7
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	19:22	0	1	1

28 points this season

73BluegerF

24DuhaimeF

22McCabeD TS28StecherD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:49 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
73	Teddy Blueger F	15:18	1	1	2
24	Brandon Duhaime F	14:14	1	2	3
22	Jake McCabe D	21:03	0	1	1
28	Troy Stecher D	20:17	1	1	2

8 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:39 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Nick Paul F	17:27	2	3	5
15	Colton Sissons F	15:34	2	3	5
44	Morgan Rielly D	20:58	0	7	7
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	19:22	0	1	1

18 points this season

Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky #72 (Projected) · Anthony Stolarz #41 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (18)

Nick Paul · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kirill Marchenko · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
William Nylander · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jack Roslovic · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Auston Matthews · Azadeh Kashani, CC BY-SA 4.0
Brandon Duhaime · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY-SA 4.0
Teddy Blueger · Pens_Through_My_Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Zack Macewen · Andrew McQuillan, CC BY-SA 2.0
Gavin McKenna · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Colton Sissons · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Vinni Lettieri · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Darren Raddysh · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jake McCabe · Xgeorg, CC BY-SA 3.0
Morgan Rielly · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nick Blankenburg · SecretName101, CC BY-SA 4.0
Sergei Bobrovsky · Paula R. Lively from Zanesville, CC BY 2.0
Anthony Stolarz · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Philipp Grubauer SEA

.907 save percentage

2.76 GAA · 4–1–1 · 6 starts

Sergei Bobrovsky TOR

.895 save percentage

3.10 GAA · 3–3–2 · 8 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Sergei Bobrovsky · Paula R. Lively from Zanesville, CC BY 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Auston MatthewsTOR · C · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8534%2.93
Frederick GaudreauSEA · C · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6330%3.37
Mackie SamoskevichSEA · RW · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5328%3.54
Kirill MarchenkoTOR · RW · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6628%3.54
William NylanderTOR · RW · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6325%3.95
Easton CowanTOR · RW · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5624%4.15
Jordan EberleSEA · RW · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4422%4.55
Jack RoslovicTOR · C · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4521%4.76
Matty BeniersSEA · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3219%5.26
Bobby McMannSEA · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3219%5.40

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (4)

Auston Matthews · Azadeh Kashani, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kirill Marchenko · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
William Nylander · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jack Roslovic · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Seattle Kraken are the pick at home against Toronto Maple Leafs: a 54% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

Seattle Kraken have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch. Toronto Maple Leafs have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Seattle Kraken sit 3rd in the Western Conference, while Toronto Maple Leafs sit 6th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Seattle Kraken rate +0.17 and Toronto Maple Leafs +0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.02 goals to Seattle Kraken. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Seattle Kraken win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 54%.

Our own lines for this game: Seattle Kraken −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.8 projected).

Seattle Kraken to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 4–3. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Team leaders

Seattle KrakenThis seasonToronto Maple Leafs

Points
Jordan Eberle9 games9 Auston Matthews8 games17
Goals
Frederick Gaudreau6 games6 Auston Matthews8 games8
Assists
Chandler Stephenson9 games8 Auston Matthews8 games9
Penalty minutes
Ryan Winterton7 games9 Oliver Ekman-Larsson6 games14

Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (11 games per team); current squads only.

Photo credits (2)

Auston Matthews · Azadeh Kashani, CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Ekman-Larsson · 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0

Recent form

Seattle Kraken

W5–3 W4–3 L3–8 OTL3–4 W3–2

Toronto Maple Leafs

W5–4 W6–2 W3–1 L1–4 OTL4–5

W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Wednesday, March 3

06:30 PM
Toronto Maple Leafs
Seattle Kraken
Prediction coming soon

Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction

Our pick

Game flow

Markets

Lines

Goalie duel

Who scores

Who will win Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Team leaders

Recent form

Head to head

Also scheduled

Wednesday, March 3

Other games that day