NHL

Detroit Red Wings vs St. Louis Blues prediction

Detroit Red Wings4–3–3 · Home St. Louis Blues5–4–1 · Away01:00 PMOct 31

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%DET51%DET

Detroit Red Wings to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.97 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Detroit Red Wings 51% favourites at home against St. Louis Blues, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

DETDetroit Red Wings in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

LOUSt. Louis Blues in 60'

39%

Game flow

DET 3.0 · LOU 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 1.1–1.0

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Detroit Red Wings51%1.97
Regulation result (60 minutes)Detroit Red Wings41%2.46
Puck lineSt. Louis Blues +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Detroit Red Wings

51%fair 1.97

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Detroit Red Wings

41%fair 2.46

Puck line

St. Louis Blues +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Detroit Red Wings

Last game: Oct 22

36GibsonProjected

LR23RaymondLW DL71LarkinC MB28Brandsegg-NygårdRW

1st line

13:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Lucas Raymond LW	17:42	3	5	8
71	Dylan Larkin C	20:09	1	4	5
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård RW	16:25	2	6	8

21 points this season

VA33ArvidssonLW EF58FinnieC AD93DeBrincatRW

2nd line

9:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
33	Viktor Arvidsson LW	13:59	4	3	7
58	Emmitt Finnie C	15:00	4	3	7
93	Alex DeBrincat RW	15:15	6	5	11

25 points this season

JC37CompherLW AC18CoppC MR27RasmussenRW

3rd line

9:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
37	J.T. Compher LW	13:20	0	1	1
18	Andrew Copp C	15:30	1	1	2
27	Michael Rasmussen RW	14:34	1	2	3

6 points this season

CM34MazurLW ND29DanielsonC KK55KolesarRW

4th line

7:36 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	A	P
34	Carter Mazur LW	10:49	1	1
29	Nate Danielson C	10:15	2	2
55	Keegan Kolesar RW	13:09	0	0

3 points this season

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

1st pair

15:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

6 points this season

AJ20JohanssonD

AJ42JohanssonD

2nd pair

12:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5
42	Anton Johansson D	17:48	–	–	–

JF72FaulkD WW54WallinderD

3rd pair

11:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4
54	William Wallinder D	13:34	2	1	3

7 points this season

DL71LarkinF LR23RaymondF AD93DeBrincatF

VA33ArvidssonF MS53SeiderD

Power play unit 1

1:41 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
23	Lucas Raymond F	17:42	3	5	8
93	Alex DeBrincat F	15:15	6	5	11
33	Viktor Arvidsson F	13:59	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5

36 points this season

MB28Brandsegg-NygårdF AC18CoppF EF58FinnieF

MR27RasmussenF JF72FaulkD

Power play unit 2

0:44 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård F	16:25	2	6	8
18	Andrew Copp F	15:30	1	1	2
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4

24 points this season

DL71LarkinF EF58FinnieF

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:16 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

18 points this season

MR27RasmussenF KK55KolesarF

MS53SeiderD AJ20JohanssonD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:59 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
55	Keegan Kolesar F	13:09	0	0	0
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5

13 points this season

Goalies: John Gibson #36 (Projected) · Michal Postava #35 (Backup)

St. Louis Blues

Last game: Oct 22

JH30HoferProjected

DH81HollowayLW RT18ThomasC JS21SnuggerudRW

1st line

13:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Dylan Holloway LW	18:40	3	7	10
18	Robert Thomas C	19:27	1	4	5
21	Jimmy Snuggerud RW	17:34	6	2	8

23 points this season

PB89BuchnevichLW JN63NeighboursC DD15DvorskyRW

2nd line

12:53 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Pavel Buchnevich LW	17:14	2	4	6
63	Jake Neighbours C	16:38	3	2	5
15	Dalibor Dvorsky RW	15:05	2	1	3

14 points this season

CM77McMichaelLW MM83McTavishC JB29BerggrenRW

3rd line

11:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Connor McMichael LW	13:14	2	5	7
83	Mason McTavish C	14:06	6	4	10
29	Jonatan Berggren RW	13:49	2	3	5

22 points this season

PS22SuterLW AK41KaskimakiC OS28StenbergRW

4th line

10:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Pius Suter LW	11:50	3	3	6
41	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C	12:38	0	1	1
28	Otto Stenberg RW	11:36	0	1	1

8 points this season

PB6BrobergD JB72BarronD

1st pair

9:56 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Philip Broberg D	22:51	2	4	6
72	Justin Barron D	20:23	1	4	5

11 points this season

CF17FowlerD BC25CarloD

2nd pair

15:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Cam Fowler D	20:32	0	4	4
25	Brandon Carlo D	19:27	0	1	1

5 points this season

CP55ParaykoD AJ36JiricekD

3rd pair

6:06 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
55	Colton Parayko D	18:36	0	4	4
36	Adam Jiricek D	16:20	1	1	2

6 points this season

RT18ThomasF DH81HollowayF JS21SnuggerudF

JN63NeighboursF PB6BrobergD

Power play unit 1

1:34 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Robert Thomas F	19:27	1	4	5
81	Dylan Holloway F	18:40	3	7	10
21	Jimmy Snuggerud F	17:34	6	2	8
63	Jake Neighbours F	16:38	3	2	5
6	Philip Broberg D	22:51	2	4	6

34 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 1: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Joel Hofer #30 (Projected) · Jordan Binnington #50 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (2)

John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jordan Binnington · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

John Gibson DET

.871 save percentage

3.35 GAA · 3–3–1 · 7 starts

Joel Hofer LOU

.921 save percentage

2.17 GAA · 4–2–1 · 1 shutout · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Alex DeBrincatDET · RW · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6632%3.13
Jimmy SnuggerudLOU · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6429%3.46
Mason McTavishLOU · C · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6628%3.56
Emmitt FinnieDET · C · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4625%4.02
Viktor ArvidssonDET · LW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4323%4.28
Lucas RaymondDET · LW · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3523%4.44
Dylan HollowayLOU · LW · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3722%4.61
Jake NeighboursLOU · LW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3418%5.70
Pius SuterLOU · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3417%5.91
William WallinderDET · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2117%5.98

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Detroit Red Wings vs St. Louis Blues?

Our model makes Detroit Red Wings 51% favourites at home against St. Louis Blues, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Detroit Red Wings have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. St. Louis Blues have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Detroit Red Wings sit 11th in the Eastern Conference, while St. Louis Blues sit 9th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Detroit Red Wings rate −0.04 and St. Louis Blues +0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.19 goals to St. Louis Blues. Home ice is worth about 0.24 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Detroit Red Wings win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

Our own lines for this game: Detroit Red Wings −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Detroit Red Wings to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.