AHL

Coachella Valley Firebirds vs San Jose Barracuda prediction

Coachella Valley Firebirds3–2–3 · Home San Jose Barracuda2–4–0 · Away10:00 PMOct 23

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%COA53%COA

Coachella Valley Firebirds to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.89 · projected 4–3

Coachella Valley Firebirds are the pick at home against San Jose Barracuda with a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

After 60 minutes

COACoachella Valley Firebirds in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

SANSan Jose Barracuda in 60'

37%

Game flow

COA 3.5 · SAN 3.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.3

P2 · 1.6–1.5

P3 · 1.0–0.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Coachella Valley Firebirds53%1.89
Regulation result (60 minutes)Coachella Valley Firebirds42%2.36
Puck lineSan Jose Barracuda +1.568%1.47
Total goalsOver 5.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Coachella Valley Firebirds

53%fair 1.89

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Coachella Valley Firebirds

42%fair 2.36

Puck line

San Jose Barracuda +1.5

68%fair 1.47

Total goals

Over 5.5

61%fair 1.63

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. NymanCOA · 8 G in 8 GP · 8 GP8342%2.38
J. AvonCOA · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4328%3.55
L. MorrisonCOA · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3426%3.78
L. RoedCOA · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2324%4.13
J. MiettinenCOA · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2422%4.49

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Coachella Valley Firebirds vs San Jose Barracuda?

Coachella Valley Firebirds are the pick at home against San Jose Barracuda with a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

Coachella Valley Firebirds hold third place in the Pacific Division while San Jose Barracuda sit tenth, and the ratings back up that gap: adjusted for opponents, Coachella Valley Firebirds come in at −0.03 goals per game against an average team and San Jose Barracuda at −0.36, an edge of 0.32 goals to the home side. Home ice is worth about -0.10 goals a game in this league, so it trims that edge rather than adding to it, which is part of why this stays close on the numbers. The result is a lean rather than a clear favourite.

Recent form cuts the other way. Coachella Valley Firebirds have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch, while San Jose Barracuda have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 5.0. San Jose Barracuda have been the busier offence lately and the looser defence, so the underdog's case rests on scoring enough to stay in it rather than on keeping the game tight.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Coachella Valley Firebirds win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%. The betting market agrees, pricing Coachella Valley Firebirds at 53% on the moneyline across 8 bookmakers once the margin is removed. With the projected score at 4–3, the model sees a one-goal game that could easily need extra time, so the lean deserves care.

Put together, the table and the adjusted ratings favour Coachella Valley Firebirds, but the recent form and the modest home-ice value keep the gap small. San Jose Barracuda's 3.8 goals a game over the last five is the main reason the projected score is as high as it is, and it is also why the underdog is not written off. This is close to a coin flip, and the predictions reflect that.

The projected 4–3 score puts the game right on the edge of Coachella Valley Firebirds −1.5 on the puck line, which comes in 32% of the time on our numbers, so the model does not see a two-goal margin as likely. At 7 projected goals against a line of 5.5, the over lands 61%, the clearest edge on the board given both teams' recent scoring and conceding rates.

Coachella Valley Firebirds to win, overtime and shootout included (53%), with a projected score of 4–3; it is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.