Metal Ligaen

Rungsted vs Herning Blue Fox prediction

Rungsted4–8–2 · Home Herning Blue Fox12–0–1 · Away03:00 PMNov 1

31%win chance incl. overtime69%

Our pick

69%HER69%HER

Herning Blue Fox to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.46 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Herning Blue Fox (69%) on the road against Rungsted, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

RUNRungsted in 60'

24%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

HERHerning Blue Fox in 60'

59%

Game flow

RUN 2.3 · HER 3.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 0.6–1.1

P3 · 0.9–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Herning Blue Fox69%1.46
Regulation result (60 minutes)Herning Blue Fox59%1.68
Puck lineRungsted +1.557%1.75
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Herning Blue Fox

69%fair 1.46

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Herning Blue Fox

59%fair 1.68

Puck line

Rungsted +1.5

57%fair 1.75

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

O. KiljunenHER · 11 G in 13 GP · 13 GP11436%2.81
K. O'NeilHER · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7628%3.56
O. LissRUN · 9 G in 14 GP · 14 GP9328%3.56
M. PoulsenHER · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7528%3.60
A. LindeHER · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7228%3.63
V. AhlbergRUN · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4320%4.90
T. DalyRUN · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4119%5.23
J. DmytriwHER · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4318%5.47
F. KarlssonRUN · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4116%6.09
G. OlhaverRUN · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4616%6.18

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Rungsted vs Herning Blue Fox?

The numbers side with Herning Blue Fox (69%) on the road against Rungsted, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Rungsted have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch. Herning Blue Fox have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 1.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Rungsted sit 9th, while Herning Blue Fox sit 1st.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Rungsted rate −0.32 and Herning Blue Fox +1.03 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.35 goals to Herning Blue Fox. Home ice is worth about 0.18 goals a game in this league.

About 17% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Herning Blue Fox win it in regulation only 59% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 69%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Rungsted 0, Herning Blue Fox 1); the latest finished Herning Blue Fox 4–3 Rungsted on 2026-08-30.

Our own lines for this game: Herning Blue Fox −1.5 on the puck line (43%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Herning Blue Fox to win, overtime and shootout included (69%). Projected score: 3–2.