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Straubing Tigers vs Red Bull München prediction

Straubing Tigers7–3–0 · Home Red Bull München6–3–1 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%STR61%STR

Straubing Tigers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.65 · projected 3–2

Straubing Tigers are the pick at home against Red Bull München: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

STRStraubing Tigers in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

REDRed Bull München in 60'

31%

Game flow

STR 3.4 · RED 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.7

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.4–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Straubing Tigers61%1.65
Regulation result (60 minutes)Straubing Tigers51%1.95
Puck lineRed Bull München +1.565%1.55
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Straubing Tigers

61%fair 1.65

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Straubing Tigers

51%fair 1.95

Puck line

Red Bull München +1.5

65%fair 1.55

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

N. HalloranSTR · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5728%3.55
J. BeaudinSTR · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4725%4.02
D. KahunRED · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5224%4.14
S. McKenzieSTR · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4323%4.27
J. ReesSTR · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4523%4.27
M. BrandtSTR · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3521%4.66
T. RiederRED · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4221%4.68
L. ThalerRED · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3320%5.09
P. HagerRED · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3520%5.10
E. HedeRED · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2117%5.89

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Straubing Tigers vs Red Bull München?

Straubing Tigers are the pick at home against Red Bull München: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Straubing Tigers have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.6 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Red Bull München have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Straubing Tigers sit 2nd, while Red Bull München sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Straubing Tigers rate +0.35 and Red Bull München −0.04 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.39 goals to Straubing Tigers. Home ice is worth about 0.28 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Straubing Tigers 51% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Straubing Tigers −1.5 on the puck line (35%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.3 projected).

Straubing Tigers to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.