Passau vs Deggendorf prediction

Deggendorf are the pick to win on the road at 67%, with the model projecting a 4–3 final.

Deggendorf arrive as the league's top side and the model's clear favourite, holding a 67% edge over Passau with overtime and shootout included. The form gap is just as wide: Deggendorf have won all five of their last five while scoring 4.6 and allowing 1.2 goals a game, whereas Passau have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.8 over that stretch. Passau sit 12th, Deggendorf 1st, and nothing in the recent record suggests the table is misleading.

The ratings back up the standings. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Passau rate −0.42 and Deggendorf +0.92 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.35 goals to Deggendorf. Home ice is worth about 0.22 goals a game in this league, which narrows the gap only slightly. Passau's case rests on that home advantage and on keeping the game close enough for a single goal to decide it.

Inside regulation the model gives Deggendorf 67% to win in 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 13%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The projected 4–3 scoreline reflects a game that stays competitive rather than a blowout, which is where Passau's home-ice edge comes into play. The market's view of the winner is firm: Deggendorf are favoured to take it, overtime and shootout included.

For Passau, the route to an upset runs through limiting Deggendorf's scoring rate and turning the game into the kind of tight contest the 13% tie probability implies. Deggendorf's five-game run of 1.2 goals allowed per game makes that difficult, and their 4.6 goals scored per game puts constant pressure on a Passau side allowing 3.8 over its last five. The numbers point one way, even if the margin is not expected to be large.

The projected 4–3 final sits one goal clear of the Deggendorf −1.5 puck line, which our line prices at 43%, so the model sees the favourite winning but not covering by two. On the total, the projection of 6.9 goals against a 6.5 line gives the over 56%, a modest lean rather than a strong one. Both markets reflect the same picture: Deggendorf are favoured, but the expected margin and scoring volume leave the lines close.

Deggendorf to win, overtime and shootout included, at 67%, with a projected score of 4–3.