SHL

Brynäs vs Färjestad prediction

Brynäs5–5–0 · Home Färjestad9–0–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

41%win chance incl. overtime59%

Our pick

59%FÄR59%FÄR

Färjestad to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.69 · projected 2–3

Farjestad are the pick on the road against Brynas: a 59% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

BRYBrynäs in 60'

31%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

FÄRFärjestad in 60'

48%

Game flow

BRY 2.2 · FÄR 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.7

P2 · 0.5–1.0

P3 · 0.8–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Färjestad59%1.69
Regulation result (60 minutes)Färjestad48%2.08
Puck lineBrynäs +1.569%1.45
Total goalsOver 4.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Färjestad

59%fair 1.69

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Färjestad

48%fair 2.08

Puck line

Brynäs +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Over 4.5

61%fair 1.63

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

V. LodinFÄR · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7727%3.71
K. BellowsBRY · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5321%4.86
A. MattssonFÄR · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3218%5.43
R. ZohornaFÄR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4617%5.79
P. AslundFÄR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4117%5.80
J. NygardFÄR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3317%5.83
J. SilfverbergBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3416%6.44
J. Anderson-DolanBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3416%6.45
B. TrivignoBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3215%6.80
O. LindblomBRY · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3115%6.82

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Brynäs vs Färjestad?

Farjestad are the pick on the road against Brynas: a 59% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Brynas have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Farjestad have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 1.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Brynas sit 5th, while Farjestad sit 1st.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Brynas rate +0.06 and Farjestad +0.97 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.91 goals to Farjestad. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Farjestad win it in regulation only 48% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 59%.

Our own lines for this game: Farjestad −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 61% (5.1 projected).

Farjestad to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2.