Czech Extraliga

Pardubice vs Litvínov prediction

Pardubice10–2–0 · Home Litvínov5–6–1 · Away06:00 PMOct 27

63%win chance incl. overtime37%

Our pick

63%PAR63%PAR

Pardubice to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.58 · projected 3–2

Pardubice are the pick at home against Litvinov: a 63% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

PARPardubice in 60'

53%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LITLitvínov in 60'

28%

Game flow

PAR 3.3 · LIT 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.6

P2 · 1.0–1.0

P3 · 1.3–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Pardubice63%1.58
Regulation result (60 minutes)Pardubice53%1.88
Puck lineLitvínov +1.563%1.58
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.97
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Pardubice

63%fair 1.58

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Pardubice

53%fair 1.88

Puck line

Litvínov +1.5

63%fair 1.58

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.97

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. SmejkalPAR · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7428%3.56
D. KampfLIT · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5425%4.03
D. TomasekPAR · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5824%4.10
M. StranskyPAR · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6424%4.22
R. CervenkaPAR · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5722%4.59
P. KoblasaLIT · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4120%4.91
T. NosekPAR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4520%5.04
O. KaseLIT · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4520%5.07
V. SamalLIT · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3119%5.35
J. JaksLIT · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2113%7.83

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: D. Tomasek: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; R. Cervenka: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; T. Nosek: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Pardubice vs Litvínov?

Pardubice are the pick at home against Litvinov: a 63% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Pardubice have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Litvinov have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Pardubice sit 2nd, while Litvinov sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Pardubice rate +0.50 and Litvinov −0.15 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.66 goals to Pardubice. Home ice is worth about 0.15 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Pardubice win it in regulation only 53% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 63%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Pardubice 1, Litvinov 0); the latest finished Litvinov 1–3 Pardubice on 2026-09-18.

Our own lines for this game: Pardubice −1.5 on the puck line (37%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (5.9 projected).

Pardubice to win, overtime and shootout included (63%). Projected score: 3–2.