NHL predictions for Tuesday 27 October: three-game slate
Tuesday 27 October brings three NHL games, beginning with Calgary Flames hosting Toronto Maple Leafs at 00:30 UTC. The model's top pick of the day is Edmonton Oilers to win at 61%.
The closest matchup on paper is Philadelphia Flyers against Columbus Blue Jackets, where the home side gets a 53% chance. Calgary Flames against Toronto Maple Leafs has the highest total of the day at 6.5 points. This season the model has correctly called 14 of 22 NHL winners (64%), and every result is public.
NHL picks at a glance
| Game | Tip-off | Pick | Chance | Projected | Home spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs | 00:30 UTC | Toronto Maple Leafs to win | 59% | 2–3 | +1.5 | 6.5 |
| Edmonton Oilers vs Detroit Red Wings | 01:30 UTC | Edmonton Oilers to win | 61% | 3–2 | -1.5 | 6.5 |
| Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets | 23:00 UTC | Philadelphia Flyers to win | 53% | 3–2 | -1.5 | 5.5 |
Calgary Flames vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Tip-off: 00:30 UTC.
The model favours Toronto Maple Leafs on the road, giving them a 59% chance that includes overtime and shootout, and projects a 3–2 final. The main reason is a significant edge in adjusted goals per game: Toronto rates +0.32 against an average team, while Calgary rates −0.49, a difference of 0.80 goals in Toronto's favour.
Both teams have won four of their last five. Calgary has scored 3.0 and allowed 2.4 goals per game in that stretch, while Toronto has scored 4.4 and allowed 2.6. The Maple Leafs therefore hold an advantage in recent scoring, though both sides have similar defensive records.
Calgary sits 13th in the Western Conference with a 4–6 record, and Toronto is 4th in the Eastern Conference at 7–4. The model also gives Toronto a 47% chance to win in regulation and a 21% chance of a tie after three periods. The betting market, after removing the bookmaker margin, prices Toronto at 59% across 9 bookmakers, matching the model's view.
The spread is Calgary +1.5, and the model has Calgary covering 64% of the time. The total is set at 6.5 points, with the over at 51%, while the projected total is 5. That suggests the under may have value, but the model's primary pick is Toronto to win outright.
- Win probability: Calgary Flames 41%, Toronto Maple Leafs 59%
- Projected score: Calgary Flames 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
- Spread: Calgary Flames +1.5. The model has Calgary Flames covering 64% of the time.
- Total: 6.5 points, with the over at 51%. Our projected total is 5.
- Calgary Flames: 13th in the Western Conference, 4–6; form W W W L W (4 of the last 5)
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 4th in the Eastern Conference, 7–4; form W W W W L (4 of the last 5)
- Leading scorers: Aydar Suniev (Calgary Flames, 1.3 points a game) and William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs, 2.0 points a game)
Our pick: Toronto Maple Leafs to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2. Full prediction · likely lineups
Edmonton Oilers vs Detroit Red Wings prediction
Tip-off: 01:30 UTC.
Edmonton Oilers are the model's strongest pick of the day, with a 61% chance to win at home against Detroit Red Wings, overtime and shootout included. The projected score is 3–2. The Oilers' adjusted rating is +0.28 goals per game against an average team, compared to Detroit's −0.15, giving Edmonton an edge of 0.42 goals.
Both teams have won three of their last five, but their form differs. Edmonton has scored 4.0 and allowed 4.2 goals per game in that span, while Detroit has scored 3.0 and allowed 2.8. The Oilers have the better offense but a leakier defense, making the overall comparison relatively even.
Edmonton is 2nd in the Western Conference with an 8–2 record, while Detroit is 13th in the Eastern Conference at 4–4. The model gives Edmonton a 50% chance to win in regulation, with a 21% chance the game is tied after 60 minutes. The betting market, after removing the margin, prices Edmonton at 62% across 8 bookmakers, close to the model's 61%.
The spread is Edmonton -1.5, and the model has Detroit covering 62% of the time. The total is 6.5 points, with the over at 51%, while the projected total is 5. That points to the under, but the main pick is Edmonton to win outright.
- Win probability: Edmonton Oilers 61%, Detroit Red Wings 39%
- Projected score: Edmonton Oilers 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
- Spread: Edmonton Oilers -1.5. The model has Detroit Red Wings covering 62% of the time.
- Total: 6.5 points, with the over at 51%. Our projected total is 5.
- Edmonton Oilers: 2nd in the Western Conference, 8–2; form L W W W L (3 of the last 5)
- Detroit Red Wings: 13th in the Eastern Conference, 4–4; form L W L W W (3 of the last 5)
- Leading scorers: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers, 2.8 points a game) and Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings, 1.4 points a game)
Our pick: Edmonton Oilers to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2. Full prediction · likely lineups
Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction
Tip-off: 23:00 UTC.
The model gives Philadelphia Flyers a 53% chance to win at home against Columbus Blue Jackets, with a projected score of 3–2. That is only a slight lean, as the two teams are nearly level on adjusted goals per game: Philadelphia rates −0.41 and Columbus −0.36, a tiny edge of 0.05 goals to the Blue Jackets. Home ice, worth about 0.23 goals per game, tips the scales just enough for the Flyers.
Philadelphia has won three of its last five, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.2 goals per game in that stretch. Columbus has won two of its last five, scoring 1.8 and allowing 3.2. The Flyers have been the more consistent team recently, especially defensively.
Philadelphia is 15th in the Eastern Conference with a 3–7 record, and Columbus is 16th at 4–5. The model gives Philadelphia a 42% chance to win in regulation and a 22% chance of a tie after three periods. The teams have not met recently in the data provided.
The spread is Philadelphia -1.5, and the model has Columbus covering 74% of the time. The total is 5.5 points, with the under at 56%, while the projected total is 5. That suggests the under is the stronger play, but the model's pick is Philadelphia to win outright, albeit with low confidence.
- Win probability: Philadelphia Flyers 53%, Columbus Blue Jackets 47%
- Projected score: Philadelphia Flyers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
- Spread: Philadelphia Flyers -1.5. The model has Columbus Blue Jackets covering 74% of the time.
- Total: 5.5 points, with the under at 56%. Our projected total is 5.
- Philadelphia Flyers: 15th in the Eastern Conference, 3–7; form L W W W L (3 of the last 5)
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 16th in the Eastern Conference, 4–5; form W L L W L (2 of the last 5)
- Leading scorers: Matvei Michkov (Philadelphia Flyers, 1.3 points a game) and Damon Severson (Columbus Blue Jackets, 1.3 points a game)
Our pick: Philadelphia Flyers to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction · likely lineups
NHL standings before tip-off
| # | Team | Group | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boston Bruins | Eastern Conference | 9 | 2 |
| 2 | Edmonton Oilers | Western Conference | 8 | 2 |
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | Eastern Conference | 9 | 2 |
| 3 | Ottawa Senators | Eastern Conference | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | Utah Mammoth | Western Conference | 8 | 4 |
| 5 | Dallas Stars | Western Conference | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning | Eastern Conference | 7 | 3 |
| 7 | New Jersey Devils | Eastern Conference | 7 | 4 |
Questions about Tuesday 27 October's NHL games
What is the best NHL bet for Tuesday 27 October?
By the model's numbers it is Edmonton Oilers to win at 61%, which rates as a lean. A 61% pick still loses 4 times in ten.
Which NHL game is the hardest to call?
Philadelphia Flyers against Columbus Blue Jackets: Philadelphia Flyers 53%, Columbus Blue Jackets 47%, with a projected score of 3–2.
Which game should have the most points?
Calgary Flames against Toronto Maple Leafs, with a total of 6.5 and a projected 2–3.
How are these predictions made?
A rating model scores every team from its results, home court and margin of victory, and the number is blended with the betting market where odds exist. How it works explains the method.
Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only; if betting stops being fun, see responsible gambling. More on the NHL predictions page.